Will we see a crash in pricing?

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Hbklique1
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Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by Hbklique1 » August 26th, 2018, 12:23 am

With prices continue to increase for many guests(ex. I got some of the original power ranger signuature for $5-$10 about 6 years ago and now they’re $40-$60), do you think we’re close to hitting a peak with a crash coming from less people paying for autos/photos or do you think prices will keep going up?

I know for myself, my purchases have been less and more selective with rising costs and keep thinking that they can’t keep getting higher.


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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by Greg2600 » August 26th, 2018, 1:17 am

I doubt it, not with Arnold fetching $1250 VIP and Rick Moranis 800 for the same. It's insane.
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AJLe
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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by AJLe » August 26th, 2018, 9:26 am

Well, there's not just one "market" for prices - for example, when I first got Robert Englund 10 years ago, he was $25/graph and doing free photos at the table. Now, I hear he's $100/graph and pro photo only, yet his lines aren't any shorter. So that "market" doesn't so any signs of going down, let alone crashing. So I always think legit headliners will be able to score big money at shows. Where the market might show weakness is "fad" headliners (guests that can headline and charge big money when their movie/show is hot, but will have little interest after it goes off the air), and nostalgia acts and other "midcard" con guests.

Here's another example - for years and years, Danielle Harris had a cult following and drew huge lines at shows. So much that when I'd walk into the MMania Riverside room, I'd call the first table on the right the "Danielle Harris Spot", since they always put her there so her line could snake up the hallway. At those times, she was $20-$25 for the graph, and doing free table ops. Fast forward to a HorrorHound in Indianapolis last year - she jumped up to $40 for the graph, and (I think) was charging extra for table ops. She burned through her short line in minutes after getting to her table, and you could walk right up to her for the rest of the time. By comparison, Russell Todd from F13 p2 (who's a rare horror victim name, but has few if any credits other than that movie), at $25 and free photos, did MUCH more business than Danielle Harris. Why? Apparently, Danielle priced people out of her market, and Todd's reps accurately priced his market.

And even when markets for particular guests "crash", things can revive them. Nick Castle whored himself all around the con circuit to the point that a year or two ago you could basically walk right up to him at any show. But at last week's MMania, his line extended out of the side room they had him in. Why? They announced a new Halloween movie with him involved, so his "market" had a huge comeback.

So long story short ("Too late" - Col. Mustard), I think the markets for legit headliners will continue to rise, but I think people who are on shows that are popular now but won't have legs five years from now will eventually see their bubbles burst, and horror and other midcard guests have to be careful about not inflating their prices too much, or they run the risk of turning off their fanbase. There's only so much total money that fans will spend - the Robert Englunds, Norman Reedus', Arnolds, etc. will always get their share, but if budgets get tightened, it'll be those guests where people draw the lines.

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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by Hbklique1 » August 26th, 2018, 1:51 pm

AJLe, I agree. Arnold I wasn’t surprised walkthrough his pricing as I assumed it would have been close or more than Stallone from a few years ago. Moranis I’ll be curious as I was expecting him to be in the $100-$150 range.

I had a similar gonwith horror guests with over pricing. We had a horror con here that had almost Of the main cast from NOES 3 and I was pretty excited to start a poster until everyone was charging $35-$40 per autograph. Had it Of in that $20-25 range I would have gone no problem.

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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by AJLe » August 26th, 2018, 3:18 pm

Hbklique1 wrote:
August 26th, 2018, 1:51 pm
AJLe, I agree. Arnold I wasn’t surprised walkthrough his pricing as I assumed it would have been close or more than Stallone from a few years ago. Moranis I’ll be curious as I was expecting him to be in the $100-$150 range.

I had a similar gonwith horror guests with over pricing. We had a horror con here that had almost Of the main cast from NOES 3 and I was pretty excited to start a poster until everyone was charging $35-$40 per autograph. Had it Of in that $20-25 range I would have gone no problem.
:jawdrop:

Not counting Englund and the people who don't do cons anyway (Patricia Arquette and Laurence Fishburne) nobody in that cast except *maybe* Heather Langenkamp should be above $25. If people like Ken Sagoes and Ira Heiden were charging $35 or more, they should fire their agent, because that's laughably high, and I'm sure cost them a lot of money.

People on that level depend on completists who want to finish cast projects, so when they price themselves to the point where a group project becomes too expensive for all but the hardcore diehards, they're killing off their business.


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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by class316 » August 27th, 2018, 2:05 pm

It's like I said before, people's desires for combos are inelastic. Prices go up but demand either stays the same or doesn't go down much. Kinda like gas prices. Even if they increase people will still fill with gas.
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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by AJLe » August 27th, 2018, 4:00 pm

Terrible analogy - people need gasoline, but there's not a million different types of gasoline that people either love, hate, or are indifferent to, they just want gas from any convenient source. In this hobby, each and every guest has their own individual market, and some of the fans might flock to their table, and some might pass on them at any price.

If somebody normally goes to the Exxon for their gas but the Exxon is closed they'll gladly go to the BP station down the street, because they just generally need gas. But if somebody goes to MMania as a big NOES fan to meet Robert Englund and his line is cut off, they're not automatically going to then decide to go meet Carl Weathers just because they "need an autograph". Some fans will be Englund fans, some will be Weathers fans, some might like both, and some might have zero interest in either. It's all completely separate markets and varying interest levels.

You'd have to be a completely obsessed psychopath to go to a con and stand in line for people you have no interest in, just because "well, I need to get combos from somebody and there's a famous person at this table in front of me..."

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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by class316 » August 27th, 2018, 6:32 pm

AJLe wrote:
August 27th, 2018, 4:00 pm
Terrible analogy - people need gasoline, but there's not a million different types of gasoline that people either love, hate, or are indifferent to, they just want gas from any convenient source. In this hobby, each and every guest has their own individual market, and some of the fans might flock to their table, and some might pass on them at any price.

If somebody normally goes to the Exxon for their gas but the Exxon is closed they'll gladly go to the BP station down the street, because they just generally need gas. But if somebody goes to MMania as a big NOES fan to meet Robert Englund and his line is cut off, they're not automatically going to then decide to go meet Carl Weathers just because they "need an autograph". Some fans will be Englund fans, some will be Weathers fans, some might like both, and some might have zero interest in either. It's all completely separate markets and varying interest levels.

You'd have to be a completely obsessed psychopath to go to a con and stand in line for people you have no interest in, just because "well, I need to get combos from somebody and there's a famous person at this table in front of me..."
I understand and agree with what you're saying about the different types of combos Vs different gas, but my analogy is meant to address the "need" aspect of it. Everyone needs gas so if gas prices go up people will still buy gas. Some people's desires for combos is so great that they also "need" combos. Hence why many guests will still have lines no matter how high prices get. Case in point look how much Robert Englund's price went up and despite that his line is still ginormous.
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AJLe
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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by AJLe » August 27th, 2018, 6:59 pm

class316 wrote:
August 27th, 2018, 6:32 pm
I understand and agree with what you're saying about the different types of combos Vs different gas, but my analogy is meant to address the "need" aspect of it. Everyone needs gas so if gas prices go up people will still buy gas. Some people's desires for combos is so great that they also "need" combos. Hence why many guests will still have lines no matter how high prices get. Case in point look how much Robert Englund's price went up and despite that his line is still ginormous.
That proves Robert Englund's popularity, not a general "need for combos". If it was that simple, promoters wouldn't book expensive guests like Englund who get guarantees - they'd just book cheap and local midcard guests, and if you're "need" analogy was accurate, similar numbers of fans would still buy tickets since those people "need" to get combos from somebody.

If you don't book a decent guest list, fans won't just show up anyway. If any particular con, or the "con scene" in general, stops booking popular guests fans will pay to see, the market dries up. If particular guests overprice their demand, fans won't go to their table and that market dries up. The idea that autographs are a "need" that must be satisfied by any means necessary, only applies to the super-obsessed portion of the fanbase that has mental problems. To the vast majority of the rest of the hobby, convention graphs are a profitable and growing, but still highly volatile, financial market like any other, that can (and will) rise and fall over time.

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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by Greg2600 » August 27th, 2018, 8:14 pm

I think Chiller is going to test your theory Mr. Le!
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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by class316 » August 28th, 2018, 12:58 am

Personally I think Chiller already tested what AJLe says. Their guest list isn't exactly the greatest, yet they seem to draw people no matter.
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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by AJLe » August 28th, 2018, 8:15 am

class316 wrote:
August 28th, 2018, 12:58 am
Personally I think Chiller already tested what AJLe says. Their guest list isn't exactly the greatest, yet they seem to draw people no matter.
Yeah, and NYCC sells out before announcing a single paid autograph guest, and would still sell out if they announced ahead of time that there would be zero paid autograph guests - that's not the point. You didn't say "people need to attend conventions like they buy gas", you're silly theory was that they "need" to pay for combos, which like I said, only applies to the small percentage of the hobby that has obsessive mental issues.

Chiller often sells out their hotel rooms before they even announce a signing guest, so like NYCC, those shows obviously have established themselves as an event people want to attend regardless of who they book. Does that mean that people will line up out the door to get people like Bernie Koppel at Chiller because they "need" to get combos from anybody and everybody? Of course not. If there's not any desirable guests, the same Chiller crowd will party in their rooms, hover around the celeb tables "just to talk", check out the vendors, or do whatever after-hours events that crowd enjoys doing, but nobody "needs" combos - they get them when people they want are there, and the price is what they deem reasonable.

That's why shows that were JUST about getting graphs like Wizard World drew huge crowds when they were booking top Marvel superheroes and MJF, and saw business go way down when they were booking the same "con regulars" who do the circuit. The same people who came for Captain America and Thor didn't come back the next year to get Charisma Carpenter and Lou Ferrigno just because they needed to "get combos" from whoever happened to get booked.

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Re: Will we see a crash in pricing?

Post by Gumby » August 30th, 2018, 12:38 am

Very astute observations on demand, pricing and market , AJ.

Last month at TFCON Toronto, the kid from OVER THE TOP was asking $30 auto/$20 photo/$50 phone calls, videos or voice recordings. Ridiculous. Brought 3 items for him but walked away from the table after seeing those prices.


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